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Philippine Fertility Dropping Like A Rock September 15, 2010

Posted by Maddog in Prolife Issues.
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Contrary to the hysterical fears of population doomsayers, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of the Philippines (or the average number of children per woman) has been DROPPING LIKE A ROCK for decades and will continue to do so.

Let us not mistake an occasional rise here and there for a trend. When statistics are compiled on an annual basis, a change within a single year alone does not necessarily signify any kind of trend. Such small fluctuations are common since reality does not change to fit annual measurements. The genius of statistics, however, is that it allows us to see trends over significant periods. In the case of annual statistics, we can only see trends when we examine data over longer periods, such as every five years or every ten years.

With that in mind, I invite all to look at the actual numbers with regard to the Total Fertility Rate in the Philippines.

These numbers are from the UN Populatrion Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp) and represent several types of projections (low-, high-, and mid-variant projections, and a constant fertility model).

Please note, however, that the numbers until 2005-2010 are all IDENTICAL. That is because this is HISTORICAL data, not projections. Of course 2010 is not yet over, but these numbers are actually only until July 1, 2010 (as judged form the most recent data avaiulable). I have highlighted the periods of 1955-1960 and 2005-2010 to assist people who want to make a comparison from the last fifty years.