Philippine Fertility Dropping Like A Rock

Contrary to the hysterical fears of population doomsayers, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of the Philippines (or the average number of children per woman) has been DROPPING LIKE A ROCK for decades and will continue to do so.

Let us not mistake an occasional rise here and there for a trend. When statistics are compiled on an annual basis, a change within a single year alone does not necessarily signify any kind of trend. Such small fluctuations are common since reality does not change to fit annual measurements. The genius of statistics, however, is that it allows us to see trends over significant periods. In the case of annual statistics, we can only see trends when we examine data over longer periods, such as every five years or every ten years.

With that in mind, I invite all to look at the actual numbers with regard to the Total Fertility Rate in the Philippines.

These numbers are from the UN Populatrion Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/p2k0data.asp) and represent several types of projections (low-, high-, and mid-variant projections, and a constant fertility model).

Please note, however, that the numbers until 2005-2010 are all IDENTICAL. That is because this is HISTORICAL data, not projections. Of course 2010 is not yet over, but these numbers are actually only until July 1, 2010 (as judged form the most recent data avaiulable). I have highlighted the periods of 1955-1960 and 2005-2010 to assist people who want to make a comparison from the last fifty years.

Philippines Total fertility (children per woman) All Variants 1950-2050 Period Medium variant High variant Low variant Constant- fertility variant 1950-1955 7.29 7.29 7.29 7.29 1955-1960 7.13 7.13 7.13 7.13 1960-1965 6.85 6.85 6.85 6.85 1965-1970 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 1970-1975 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 1975-1980 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 1980-1985 4.95 4.95 4.95 4.95 1985-1990 4.55 4.55 4.55 4.55 1990-1995 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 1995-2000 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 2000-2005 3.34 3.34 3.34 3.34 2005-2010 3.11 3.11 3.11 3.11 2010-2015 2.85 3.10 2.60 3.11 2015-2020 2.64 3.04 2.24 3.11 2020-2025 2.48 2.98 1.98 3.11 2025-2030 2.35 2.85 1.85 3.11 2030-2035 2.24 2.74 1.74 3.11 2035-2040 2.14 2.64 1.64 3.11 2040-2045 2.05 2.55 1.55 3.11 2045-2050 1.98 2.48 1.48 3.11

Please note the following:

• In just 50 years, our TFR has been more than halved! From 7.13 to just 3.11. In fact the drop is nearly 60%!
• Even when compared to just 40 years ago, our TFR has been cut by more than 50%!
• Even the high-variant projection shows a continuous drop in fertility.
• The low- and mid-variant projections — which have historically been the most accurate — show that the country’s TFR will drop below replacement level (2.3) in just a generation or less.

The oft-stated warning of the UN Population Division bears repeating: dropping fertility rates will bring about population ageing.

If population ageing is not mitigated with higher fertility, population ageing will cause unprecendented strain on welfare systems and force a proportionately smaller workforce to support a proportionately larger group of aging dependents. No Third World economy (or First World economy for that matter) has a solution for population ageing or is prepared for the great economic hardships that come with it. The only way to prevent population ageing is to stop and reverse declining fertility.

The scientific evidence is clear. Anyone who thinks our fertility rate is rising and will result in “overpopulation” is totally out of touch with reality.